The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, projecting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), up from 105 per cent predicted in April. It also expects June rainfall to be “above normal”, at over 108 per cent of the LPA.
Cumulative monsoon rainfall between 105 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA during the June-September period is considered “above normal”. The seasonal LPA for the country, calculated over the period from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 centimetres. The forecast for seasonal June-September rainfall carries a margin of error of +/- 4 per cent.
The agency said rainfall across nearly all of India’s homogenous regions — except the Northeast and parts of Bihar — was likely to be normal to above normal this year. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya could see below-normal rains, according to IMD’s regional outlook.
“Above-normal” June rainfall is expected to keep maximum temperatures across most of India at or below seasonal averages, with no heat waves anticipated. The month typically receives 165.4 millimetres of rainfall.
Monsoon rainfall in the “core zone” — which comprises key rain-fed agricultural regions — is also forecast to be above normal, with a 56 per cent probability of strong precipitation. Good monsoon rain across key rainfed regions in central and western India could significantly boost pulses and oilseed output, potentially reducing the country’s dependence on high-cost imports.
