The south-west monsoon is likely to set over Kerala during the week beginning May 22 (Thursday next), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its latest assessment. The national weather forecaster has already gone on record indicating the onset to unfold around May 27 here, with a model error of plus/minus 4 days.
The Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon may advance over North-East India simultaneously as the Arabian Sea arm enters the Kerala coast during the week under reference, IMD said in its extended outlook issued on Thursday. Passing western disturbances will trigger isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms over the hills of North-West India on some days of the week.
An official announcement of the monsoon’s arrival over Sri Lanka, the penultimate station, is awaited. The ongoing pre-monsoon over India may seamlessly merge into the monsoon proper. Pre-monsoon may entrench further with IMD predicting fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds for the next seven days over Kerala and Mahe; Lakshadweep; and coastal Karnataka, which form part of the traditional theatre on the West Coast where the monsoon onset unfolds.
