Global wheat prices are poised to rule bearish, with forecasts pegging the production at a record high of over 815 million tonnes (mt), with estimates of a higher crop in the US, Australia, European Union, Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, analysts say. This comes at a time when Indian growers are set to plant the main rabi cereal, wheat, from this month. Money managers, too, are bearish, as market participants have been holding net short positions throughout 2024 and 2025 in the year-to-date.
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said: “We are making a downward revision to our wheat price forecast for 2025 from $5.68/bushel to $5.46, driven by improved expectations for harvests in the largest producing markets. ICE-listed soft-red winter second-month futures closed the latest session on September 22 at $5.295, equivalent to an 11.9 per cent year-on-year decrease and 5 per cent lower than the first closing price of 2025.”
