Illegal herbicide-tolerant (HT) cottonseeds have hit the seed companies hard. Even before the regular seed companies placed their seeds through the retail channels, illegal players have already sold huge quantities of HT seed into the market, leaving the seed companies in disarray. (HT seeds, a third-generation Bt technology, are not permitted yet by regulators in India. When farmers spray herbicides over the crop, it will kill the weed and not the plant as it is protected with the HT attribute.)
As a result, the industry faces a challenging situation with huge inventories staring the seed companies. Against the market size of 4-4.5 crore packets (of 450 gm each), the industry has an inventory of about 7 crore packets, threatening to impact its bottomlines and margins. The fact that seed inventories stand at this level even after completing the sales for kharif season reflects the severity of the problem. The woes don’t stop there. Seed companies have gone for a large-scale production, expecting a huge demand. (The seed industry plans production a year ahead to ensure the availability of seed for the marketing the following year.)
“The fresh seed production could well increase the inventory to 8-8.5 crore by the beginning of the next kharif marketing season. It is a tough time for seed companies,” a top executive of a seed company told businessline. Despite some setbacks due to prolonged dry spells in a few pockets like Telangana and Andhra Pradesh at the beginning of the season, cotton acreage looks comfortable. It is expected to increase by 7-8 per cent this year over 113.60 lakh hectares last year.
“Large quantities of seeds are expected to be available for the coming year, as production has already been organised. Specifically, an estimated 4 crore packets are expected from fresh production, combined with an anticipated carryover of 3.5 crore packets, leading to a total expected availability of 7.5 crore packets for sales during 2026 and 2027,” M Ramasami, Chairman of Rasi Seeds, said.
The spectre of illegal seeds
“Earlier, they used to sell 30-40 lakh packets (of illegal HT seeds). This year, they sold one crore packets. This is one-fourth of the aggregate sales of 4-4.5 crore packets in a good year. The challenge of illegal seeds has become huge,” an industry source said.
“The incidence of illegal HT seeds is very high. Sales of these seeds were completed before seed companies started their placement. No clue as to how many packets of illegal HT seed packets are sold. Companies routinely placed their seeds in the market, but sales did not meet expectations, resulting in large unsold stocks, which gives the impression of excess inventory,” Ramasami said. He said that unless the governments took serious action against HT Bt producers, the cottonseed industry would be destroyed. He advised the industry to stop production in 2026 to survive.
