India’s key spice markets are entering a mixed cycle in 2025-26, with chilli production expected to decline sharply, turmeric output rebounding after last year’s price spike, and ginger navigating export volatility amid China’s expanding dominance. Crop intelligence presented at the International Spice Conference (ISC 2026) indicates a year of supply recalibration and price sensitivity across all three commodities.
India, the world’s largest chilli producer at roughly 2 million tonnes annually, is facing at a 35–40 per cent production decline this season due to reduced acreage and weather variability across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka. Sowing was extended into October-November, and harvests are progressing with lower-than-expected arrivals, tightening spot availability.
Though carry-forward stocks are estimated to be 8–10 per cent higher year-on-year, trade estimates suggest effective supply could still be lower by nearly 30 per cent due to acreage cuts. After a weak phase earlier in 2025 on account of high inventories, chilli prices have firmed up since January as arrivals disappointed. Export demand remains steady, with China emerging as a key buyer in recent seasons.
