There is a global consensus that El Nino is likely to emerge during July-August-September period, but it is too early to make a definitive conclusion right now, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday. It also predicted below normal rainfall in next three months (January-March) in most parts of north-western India, which is irrigated by either canal or groundwater.
Briefing media about the weather outlook during January-March winter season, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of IMD, said that most models have predicted (68 per cent chance) La Nina to continue for 1 or 2 months before making a transition to ENSO-neutral by March 2026. But, during July-September, which coincides with India’s monsoon season, the ENSO-neutral may turn El Nino, he added.
“The ENSO neutral conditions are likely to remain dominant till June-July,” he said, But, he further added that it is too early to predict about El Nino. However, most of the predictions (6 months back) on continuation of La Nina turned correct, too.
