As El Nino conditions strengthen over the Pacific this year, concerns are mounting over India’s monsoon outlook. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country could see a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2026 for the first time in three years if its April forecast turns out to be accurate. It estimates that the southwest monsoon will likely be at 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA), marking the first below-normal season since 2023. (LPA, according to the IMD, is the average rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval, like a month or a season, over a long period, such as 30 or 50 years.)
The Met department has also indicated that most parts of the country, barring some areas in the Northeast, Northwest and the southern peninsula, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this year.
Noida-headquartered private weather agency Skymet has echoed this outlook. In its 2026 forecast, it pegged rainfall at 94 per cent (plus/minus 5 per cent) of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the June-September monsoon season.
