The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week lowered its 2026 monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), downgrading it from its April forecast of 92 per cent of the LPA. Though the forecast comes with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent, if the actual rainfall comes close to the prediction, it would mean that the 2026 monsoon will likely be counted among the driest since 2015.
The LPA for the whole country is 87 cm of rainfall across the entire duration of the southwest monsoon. In 2015, the actual cumulative rainfall across the country during the four months from June to September was just 86 per cent of the LPA.
