India is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping global cereal market over the next decade. It is emerging both as a major producer and a key importer, particularly of wheat, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.
By 2034, India is expected to contribute nearly 30 per cent of the global increase in wheat output, fuelled by rising yields and area expansion, spurred by Atma Nirbharta initiatives. It is also set to overtake China as the world’s largest rice producer, accounting for 41 per cent of the projected rise in global output. However, rising domestic demand, especially for wheat, means India may turn into a net importer by the end of the forecast period.
At the same time, Indian maize exports and biofuel-linked use are expected to grow steadily, supported by policy and global price dynamics. The country’s recent removal of rice export restrictions is also seen restoring its position as the top rice exporter, reinforcing its dominance in global trade, the outlook said.
