El Nino, which has been in place since mid-June, continues to strengthen, with further intensification likely in the coming months, according to the Southern Hemisphere monitoring report from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM)
The warming in the central tropical Pacific is indicative of a strong to very strong El Nino event. Most models indicate that this event is likely to reach levels among the highest observed since 1950 or above, the report said. The latest relative Nino3.4 index value for the week ending 26 July 2026 is +1.94°C, well above the El Nino threshold (+0.80°C) and warming by 0.5°C over the past fortnight.
IOD Outlook
The current status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The weekly IOD index is +0.44°C as of July 26, warming by about 0.5°C over the last fortnight. This is the first week the index has crossed the positive IOD threshold (+0.4°C), with sustained values above this threshold required before an event is considered established. Models suggest a positive IOD could form during the Southern Hemisphere winter and last into spring, though the timing and strength of the potential event still show some variation.
