The monsoon has reached the halfway mark after a season of striking contrasts, with a disastrous June being followed by a reasonably productive July, traditionally the wettest month. The uneven performance has reflected the constant tug-of-war between the monsoon and a steadily strengthening El Niño.
The second half of the season could tell a different story. With August, the second rainiest month, and September, when the monsoon begins its withdrawal, still to come, global weather models indicate that El Niño may finally begin to exert its full influence on India’s rainfall. The first signs of that shift are already emerging.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects that the belt of heavy to very heavy rainfall over Central India, West India and the west coast will gradually weaken and migrate northwards. Focus is then expected to shift to the Himalayan states of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the adjoining foothills and plains of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the North-East and parts of East India.
