El Nino’s onset last month poses a threat to a range of agricultural commodities, from rice and wheat to cocoa, palm oil, sugar and robusta coffee, across the world. However, the threat will vary from crop to crop rather than impact crops uniformly, analysts have said.
“Rice stands out as the clearest channel of concern, given its thinly traded surplus and the concentration of both production and exports in high-sensitivity Asian origins. … India’s rebuilt stockpiles materially reduce the likelihood of a repeat of the pre-emptive trade restrictions that drove the 2023-24 rally,” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
India’s buffer stocks, rising from 30.1 per cent of consumption in 2023-24 to an estimated 42.2 per cent in 2026-27, materially reduce the likelihood of a repeat of the pre-emptive export restrictions that, more than actual crop losses, drove the 2023-24 rally, said the research agency.
