El Nino continues to strengthen, with temperatures in the Pacific Ocean now well above normal. The latest Niño 3.4 index has increased to 2.51°C, and it is forecast to intensify over the coming months.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned above the positive threshold. While a positive IOD has not yet been confirmed, models suggest one may develop this spring, according to the Southern Hemisphere Monitoring report by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.
All models, including the bureau’s, predict further warming of the tropical Pacific for the southern hemisphere spring (September-November), likely peaking in late spring or summer (December-February).
