The monsoon, having spent much of its recent energy over the eastern and northern parts of the country, is now showing signs of a quieter fortnight, under the impact of an El Niño that is forecast to grow rapidly in strength over the equatorial and east Pacific. Rainfall over India as a whole may remain below normal from August 20 to September 2, according to the latest extended-range forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This aligns with a weather trend reported in businessline a few days ago. The monsoon depression that had been anchoring the rain-bearing system over East and North-East India, as well as parts of Central and North-West India, has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area and is expected to weaken further into a conventional ‘low.’ Its remnant cyclonic circulation, however, could linger over East India during the coming week, keeping the rain machine ticking over parts of the region.
While East and North-East India, parts of Central India and the North-West remain in the path of a weakening system, the more intriguing twist is a southward shift of the rain belt. Parts of Peninsular India and the South Peninsula could emerge as surprise beneficiaries. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal may receive isolated heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday, while Kerala and Mahe could see isolated heavy rain on Sunday and Monday.
