India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years as a strengthening El Niño curbs rainfall, threatening crop yields and raising food-price risks.
Cumulative rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is 15 per cent below the long-term average so far, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009, when precipitation was 18 per cent below normal. The weather office had forecast a 10 per cent shortfall for this season back in May.
Conditions may become favourable for a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September, said Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics. That could potentially bring much-needed rain to eastern and northeastern India, mitigating the deficit there, he added.
