Conditions are turning favourable for the south-west monsoon to retreat from remaining parts of the country and the north-east monsoon to set in over the South Peninsula in the next 2-3 days. Rainfall is expected to gather pace towards the weekend and around October 15 (Thursday), setting the stage for the seasonal transition.
With the onset of the north-east monsoon, the South Peninsula is likely to see a prolonged wet spell over the next 5–6 days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The performance of the 2026 north-east monsoon will be closely watched against the backdrop of a potentially dominant super El Niño in the equatorial and eastern Pacific, touted as the strongest since 1950. Historical studies suggest that north-east monsoon rainfall during El Niño years after 1976 was, on average, considerably higher than during the 1950–1976 period.
